Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers Creation-Date: 2001-07-19 Number: 01-071/2 Author-Name: P. Hartmann Author-Workplace-Name: European Central Bank Author-Name: S. Straetmans Author-Workplace-Name: University Maastricht Author-Name: C.G. de Vries Author-Email: email@example.com Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam Title: Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods Abstract: We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets. However, for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross-asset perspective is particularly important. For example, our data show that stock-bond contagion is approximately as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds. Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration.
Published in Review of Economics and Statistics (2004), 86, 313-326. Classification-JEL: G1, F3, C49 Keywords: Financial Crises; Systemic Risk; Contagion; Market Crashes; Flight to Quality; Bivariate Extreme Value Analysis; Extreme Co-movements File-Url: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/01071.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 310381 bytes Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20010071